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Several one goal upsets in the East lead to a tightening of races in the NLL's senior division.
Simulation Results - After 10 weeks
Eastern Division
| Team |
W
|
L
|
GF
|
GA
|
Play
|
Title
|
Champ
|
| Buffalo |
11.7
|
4.3
|
238.3
|
175.5
|
1.000
|
0.672
|
0.457 |
| Boston
|
9.6
|
6.4
|
182.1
|
170.4 |
0.997
|
0.161
|
0.065
|
New York
|
8.1
|
7.9
|
190.9 |
191.7
|
0.967
|
0.118
|
0.039
|
| Philadelphia |
6.6
|
9.4
|
182.1
|
190.5
|
0.621
|
0.036
|
0.008
|
| Rochester |
6.2
|
9.8
|
178.5
|
213.8
|
0.312
|
0.011
|
0.003
|
| Toronto |
5.0
|
11.0
|
180.5
|
221.7
|
0.103
|
0.003
|
0.001
|
Start with Toronto and Rochester upsetting Boston and Buffalo, add in a little Swarm win in Philly, and you get a tightening playoff race where 2 weeks ago it looked like it was just going to be a race for matchups in the East. Rochester faces off with Toronto while the Wings take the week off, and this one will be a must win for the Rock if they are to keep those faint playoff hopes alive.
Western Division
| Team |
W
|
L
|
GF
|
GA
|
Play
|
Title
|
Champ
|
| Calgary |
12.5
|
3.5
|
218.8
|
163.2
|
1.000
|
0.550
|
0.299
|
| Portland
|
9.0
|
7.0
|
183.3
|
170.4
|
0.948
|
0.213
|
0.071
|
Colorado
|
8.6
|
7.4
|
173.5
|
174.0
|
0.951 |
0.118
|
0.029
|
Minnesota
|
7.9
|
8.1
|
179.6
|
184.4
|
0.865
|
0.089
|
0.020
|
San Jose
|
6.6
|
9.4
|
198.6
|
187.7
|
0.228
|
0.031
|
0.008
|
| Edmonton |
4.2
|
11.8
|
149.8
|
212.9
|
0.009
|
0.000
|
0.000 |
After weeks of Buffalo domination, Calgary takes over the lead in overall wins. Meanwhile the Stealth continue to disappoint, and Minnesota is starting to show pieces of the game people thought they had when they were the preseason picks to win the West.
Graphical Simulation Results
Here are the four typical graphical displays of the simulation results.
 Average Wins
 East Playoff Probabilities
 West Playoff Probabilities
 Championship Probabilities
Week 11 Projections
Rochester Knighthawks @ Toronto Rock, Saturday, 7:00 pm
The line: Pick'em (Rock win 50.3%)
The Knighthawks have beat the Rock twice in Rochester this season, and that's the reason the Hawks sit in a playoff spot right now and the Rock are buried in 6th. Toronto is a tough place for Hawks to win, and this might be the Rock's last chance to make a stand.
Portland Lumberjax @ Buffalo Bandits, Saturday, 7:30 pm
The line: Buffalo by 3.5 (Bandits win 79.3%)
The Bandits are struggling right now, with a home loss to the Swarm and road loss in Rochester in the last couple of outings. They still have a huge advantage in the simulations due to their early season dominance, but you have to think the Jax can keep this close if Buffalo doesn't get out of the funk.
Colorado Mammoth @ Calgary Roughnecks, Saturday, 9:30pm
The line: Calgary by 4 (Roughnecks win 81.4%)
A battle of top Western teams, with Calgary looking to maintain dominance of the division and start sewing up a #1 seed. The Mammoth would like to get on a good run heading into the postseason, so maybe they can avoid their traditional first round ouster.
Edmonton Rush @ San Jose Stealth, Saturday, 10:30 pm
The line: San Jose by 5 (Stealth win 88.0%)
The Rush are entrenched in last, a familar home for them in recent years. The Stealth can not afford to lose this one if they want to stay in the race for a Western playoff spot.
Minnesota Swarm @ Colorado Mammoth, Saturday, 8:00 pm
The line: Colorado by 1 (Mammoth win 59.9%)
Colorado will be tired after a game on Saturday, so this tight game will be that much tighter. If Colorado can't upset Calgary, Minnesota will be facing a desperate Mammoth squad that will want to stay in a solid playoff spot.
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