As a complement to the annual team-by-team schedule analysis published by the Outsider's Guide -- coming soon, we promise -- we also provide a numerical strength of schedule analysis. This will employ win-loss records from the 2002 NLL season as the sole method of evaluating level of opposition.

Last year, we had to consider a number of methods for evaluating the four expansion teams. This year, there are no new franchises -- in fact, we've lost one, the Montreal Express (one-year suspension of operations).

One constant between this season and last is the inconsistency of the schedule. If there is any formula for determining teams' opponents, aside from the six intradivision games, nobody has yet to figure out what it is.

The first way to look at the strength of schedule is in the traditional sense -- by summing up the 2002 win-loss records for the opponent of each game. In other sports, it's not uncommon to see top teams with soft schedules (and weak teams with difficult schedules), because, of course, they can't play themselves. However, in the NLL, that's not true, because the best teams, to fare well at the gate, request visits by the other top teams.

So, it should be no surprise that a team that plays Albany, Buffalo, Colorado, Philadelphia and Rochester twice each in interdivisional games would rank high strength of schedule. That team is the defending champion Toronto Rock, whose only games against sub-.500 teams are against Calgary and Ottawa, clubs it would have to play anyway as a member of the Northern Division.

The dividing line between the top half of the table and the bottom half could not be much clearer -- the six most difficult schedules belong to teams which made the playoffs last season, the other six to teams which did not. Roughly speaking, too, the strength-of-schedule table reflects the complete order of finish in 2002, from champion Toronto and runner-up Albany down to league-worst Calgary.

COMPLETE STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
                 Gms    W    L    Pct.
Toronto          256  140  116    .547
Albany           256  135  121    .527
Rochester        256  135  121    .527
Vancouver        256  133  123    .520
Colorado         256  131  125    .512
Philadelphia     256  131  125    .512
Buffalo          256  125  131    .488
New York         256  125  131    .488
Columbus         256  124  132    .484
Ottawa           256  121  135    .473
New Jersey       256  119  137    .465
Calgary          256  117  139    .457

The differences in schedules is drawn out even more by removing a team's divisional games. These are, after all, games that have to be played anyway. It's the other ten which separate the good teams from the suicidal ones, and it's not surprising who tops the table. Even erasing two divisional games against Vancouver, Toronto is still well beyond anyone else for schedule difficulty. That's what those home-and-home series with Albany, Buffalo (newly-expanded from a single game per season), Colorado, Philadelphia and Rochester will do for a team. In fact, remove the former Washington Power and the Wings, the two worst teams of the five a year ago, and the Rock's interdivisional strength of schedule rises from .650 to an eye-popping .729 (70 wins, 26 losses).

Other teams facing the heat outside their own divisions include Colorado and Vancouver (95-65 each) and Philadelphia (93-67). At the other end are the usual suspects, including Calgary, Columbus and Ottawa. A surprise entrant in the basement -- and one with a seemingly easy walk to a playoff berth, if last season's performance is indicative of future results -- is Buffalo. The Bandits' ten opponents outside the Central Division combined to win only 61 of 160 games, 22 of those courtesy of a two-game series with Toronto.

INTERDIVISIONAL STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
                 Gms    W    L    Pct.
Toronto          160  104   56    .650
Colorado         160   95   65    .594
Vancouver        160   95   65    .594
Philadelphia     160   93   67    .581
Albany           160   83   77    .519
New York         160   81   79    .506
Rochester        160   81   79    .506
New Jersey       160   75   85    .469
Ottawa           160   71   89    .444
Calgary          160   67   93    .419
Buffalo          160   61   99    .381
Columbus         160   54  106    .338