Week Fourteen serves up with five games, all important to the race for the four playoff berths. Philadelphia and New York each want to maintain playoff chances; the loser of their Friday night duel will pick up their sixth loss, and will be on the outside looking in the next few weeks. Toronto needs to win to stay with the leaders; Buffalo needs to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. They'll be meeting Saturday night.

The main event, though, comes when the Baltimore Thunder make a Saturday night trip to Rochester. The league co-leaders are angling to be first into the postseason, and the winner will only need a little help to have that happen this week.

Let's start with Baltimore. They're in first place, after all, and the Knighthawks' chances can be tied to Baltimore's very easily. The key element is that the Thunder win this week. If they lose, all bets are off. A win against the Knighthawks guarantees a record of no worse than 7-5... so we need to find three teams that can get to six losses (so only four can have five or less, and ensuring Baltimore places no lower than fourth). Syracuse has already done that. In addition to winning their own game, the Thunder need one of the following situations:

Situation A: Toronto defeats Buffalo and New York defeats Philadelphia. This gives the Bandits and Wings 4-6 records each.

Situation B: Toronto defeats Buffalo and Philadelphia defeats New York. Same deal as in (A), but it is New York that falls out of reach of a 7-5 record.

Situation C: New York defeats Philadelphia and Syracuse defeats New York. Philadelphia goes to 4-6, New York to 3-6.

To consider Rochester's potential of claiming a playoff berth, just invert all previous references of Baltimore and Rochester (ie: the Knighthawks have to win, to get their seventh victory, etcetera, etcetera). This similarity is because the winner of this game will be 7-3, and because no tiebreakers (which are, of course, specific to the teams involved) are being considered.

There are numerous scenarios to get the winner in without any of the above scenarios, which involve tiebreakers that are particularly complicated and not worth the space and time required to list them.

Toronto can get a playoff spot, too, by winning both their games this weekend. The Rock play Syracuse, then visit Buffalo. A win in the second game sends the Bandits to join Syracuse at six losses and Toronto to its seventh win, placing the Rock in very same field of considerations as the Thunder/Knighthawks winner. However, a weekend sweep won't quite be enough -- they need either of these two:

Situation D: New York defeats Philadelphia. This sends the Wings to their sixth loss, and gives three teams at six losses.

Situation E: Syracuse defeats New York. New York goes to six losses, joining Buffalo and Syracuse as teams that can't catch the Rock.

Again, there are several complex ones that involve Toronto splitting this weekend and clinching a multi-team tiebreaker.

Turning to the pessimistic side, no teams can be mathematically eliminated this weekend, although Syracuse can come very close. Simply by losing to Toronto, they fall to seven losses, and a 5-7 record at best. Baltimore and Rochester already have six wins, and Toronto joins them in this scenario. Wins by Philadelphia and Buffalo forces the Smash to hope neither wins again all year and that they can win out, defeating Buffalo by at least seven goals in the final week of the season. New York falls into a similar predicament if they lose both games this weekend and Toronto wins.

In Philadelphia and Buffalo, the mood is an air of urgency but not desperation. No matter what the Wings or Bandits do this weekend, they can not claim a playoff berth, nor can they be eliminated. However, it remains imperative that each reaches seven wins, to have much a chance of playing past 10 April.