|
|
|
Two down, two to goThunder, Rock fight for 1st; four fight for postseason lifeby R.A. Philly Outsider's Guide Editor in Chief The playoff race heats up as we enter April, with the Baltimore Thunder and Toronto Rock having cleared the first hurdle -- qualifying -- and now set their sights on hold-floor advantage. As fate would have it, those two, each 6-3, will meet Friday night in Toronto, with first place on the line. If Baltimore wins, it wraps up not just a home semifinal game, but home-floor advantage throughout the 1999 postseason. For the Rock, they will need to tie one of three results onto a victory: win by twelve or more goals, hope Syracuse can beat Baltimore Saturday night, or (most likely) beat New York next week. Even if none of those conditions are met, Toronto clinches a home semifinal game simply by having beaten the Thunder. Baltimore, meanwhile, could ensure one by beating Syracuse or with a Rochester loss to Buffalo. The Rochester Knighthawks aren't out of contention for a top-two finish, but need a lot of help. Since tiebreakers do not favor the Knighthawks (they were swept by Baltimore, and outscored in the season series with Toronto), they must win both their remaining games and hope the loser of Baltimore/Toronto loses its other game, as well -- plus, the winner has to win its finale. Rochester is by no means even a sure shot for the playoffs. There are three teams within reaching distance of the Knighthawks, two of which (Buffalo and Philadelphia) still have a chance to claim the respective tiebreakers, and the third, New York, can still finish higher than Rochester. The Knighthawks can get themselves into the postseason simply by winning one game. For the Saints and Wings, the requirements are a little more demanding. Although each can potentially survive one loss, the easiest route to the playoffs involve winning both games. However, the one loss for the Wings can not be this Saturday, when they host New York. If the Saints win, they will go two games up on Philadelphia with one to play, eliminating the Wings. However, each controls its own destiny. All the winner of the Wings-Saints game has to do is win its last game (at Rochester and versus Toronto, respectively), or get a little help in the form of the other team losing its season finale or a Buffalo loss. The Bandits, though, have their backs against the wall. Assuming that Rochester does not plunge to a 6-6 finish, the Bandits almost certainly must finish above both New York and Philadelphia to get a playoff spot. For that to happen, Philadelphia can only win one more game and New York can't win any. However, if the Bandits tie New York (and only New York), they can take the playoff spot if they improve their season-long goal differential (they currently trail, -14 to -5). For this reason, it might not be unreasonable to anticipate the Bandits pulling their goaltender while holding a lead, similar to what they did in the last game of 1998. The Cliff Notes edition: Baltimore: Has clinched a playoff berth. Clinches a home semifinal with a win or a Rochester loss. Clinches home-floor advantage throughout playoffs with a win Friday at Toronto. Toronto: Has clinched a playoff berth. Clinches a home semifinal with by defeating Baltimore or with a Rochester loss. Clinches home-floor advantage throughout playoffs with a win against the Thunder, provided that a) Toronto beats Baltimore by more than eleven goals, b) Baltimore loses to Syracuse Saturday night, or c) Toronto beats New York next weekend. Rochester: Can clinch a playoff berth with a win. Can clinch a home semifinal by winning both remaining games and either Baltimore or Toronto losing both of theirs (can not clinch this weekend). Mathematically eliminated from winning home-floor advantage throughout playoffs. New York: Can clinch a playoff berth with a win and a Buffalo loss at Rochester. Can clinch a home semifinal if Saints win both remaining games and Baltimore defeats Toronto and Saints defeat Toronto by more than four goals (can not clinch this weekend). Mathematically eliminated from winning home-floor advantage throughout playoffs. Philadelphia: Can clinch a playoff berth with two wins or a win and both a Buffalo loss and a Toronto win over New York (can not clinch this weekend). Must defeat New York Saturday night to retain any chance of a playoff spot. Mathematically eliminated from having home-floor advantage for any playoff game unless it can finish third, and it and the fourth-place club advance to the finals (requires intricate set of conditions). Buffalo: Can clinch a playoff berth with a) two wins and two Philadelphia losses and a Toronto win at New York and a better season-long goal differential than the Saints (can not clinch this weekend), or b) two wins and a Philadelphia win versus New York and a Philadelphia loss at Rochester and a New York loss versus Toronto. Mathematically eliminated from having home-floor advantage for any playoff game unless it can finish third, and it and the fourth-place club advance to the finals (requires intricate set of conditions). Syracuse: Mathematically eliminated from any playoff contention. Playing for pride and the ability to be a spoiler (remaining schedule: at Baltimore on Saturday, hosts Buffalo next Saturday). -30- |