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Playoff Watch
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6 April 1999
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Final weekend offers two great races
Thunder, Rock still fighting for first; Wings & Saints aiming for last playoff spot
by R.A. Philly Outsider's Guide Editor in Chief
As the National Lacrosse League winds down its regular season, there are still two excellent playoff to be decided. One, to reach its conclusion Friday night, will determine what team will possess home-floor advantage throughout the playoffs. The other, to extend into Saturday, is for the final playoff berth.
The New York Saints host the Toronto Rock Friday night, in a game with implications for both teams. The Saints want to win to improve their chances of making the playoffs. However, A Rock win guarantees them home-floor advantage through the postseason, by having the best record in the league. A loss gives the honor to Baltimore, by virtue of winning the season series goals scored tiebreaker, 36 goals to 26.
Should the Rochester Knighthawks win Saturday and pull into a three-way tie, Baltimore wins the tiebreaker on series record among the three teams. Baltimore won three of four games against the Rock and Knighthawks, Toronto two, and Rochester one.
The Knighthawks have a challenge for that win, though. They will be hosting the red-hot Philadelphia Wings, winners in five of their last seven games. The Wings will be fighting hard for the final playoff spot, and with nothing to gain by winning (Rochester has ensured it will be the number-three seed in the playoffs), the Knighthawks may rest several of their stars.
What makes the Wings/Saints race so complicated is that the teams not only are tied, they split their two games this season, and scored the same number of goals over those games (23 each). If they both win this weekend, or if they both lose, the playoff spot will be determined by season-long goal differential. Through 11 games, the Wings are plus-one (144 goals for, 143 goals against), while the Saints are minus-six (140 for, 146 against). Thus, the Saints not only need to win to improve their odds, they need to catch up on goal differential. This means either routing the Rock (unlikely) or hoping Rochester routs the Wings (also unlikely).
The wild card is a Buffalo Bandit win. Although the Bandits can not win the fourth playoff spot, they could swing the race to Philadelphia, regardless of scoring margins in the other two games. Wings and Saints losses, plus a Buffalo win at Syracuse, sends the Wings to the playoffs. This is because all three teams would be 5-7 overall, and 2-2 among the three of them. However, over the four games for each, the Wings are plus-one in scoring differential, the Saints are even at zero, and the Bandits minus-one.
The Cliff Notes edition:
Toronto: Will host a semifinal game, probably on Friday, 16 April. Can clinch home-floor advantage throughout the playoffs with a win at New York on Friday night.
Baltimore: Will host a semifinal game, probably on Saturday, 17 April. Can clinch home-floor advantage throughout the playoffs with a New York win against Toronto on Friday night.
Rochester: Are guaranteed the third seed in the playoffs, and will travel to either Toronto or Baltimore (whichever does not win home-floor advantage) for the semifinals.
Philadelphia: Can clinch a playoff berth with a) a win and a Saints loss, b) a win, provided that New York does not beat Toronto by seven more goals than the Wings win by, c) a New York loss, provided that they do not lose to Rochester by seven more goals than the Saints lose by, or d) a New York loss and a Buffalo win.
New York: Can clinch a playoff berth with a) a win and a Philadelphia loss, b) a win, provided that they beat Toronto by seven more goals than Philadelphia wins by, or c) a Philadelphia loss, provided that the Wings lose to Rochester by seven more goals than the Saints lose by.
Buffalo: Mathematically eliminated from any playoff contention. Can spoil New York's playoff berth if they beat Syracuse, the Saints lose close game to Toronto, and Philadelphia is routed in Rochester.
Syracuse: Mathematically eliminated from any playoff contention.
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