Home
News Archive
Team Pages
Standings
Schedule
Statistics
Features
Lacrosse 101
Search The OG
Send Feedback!

24 January:
Power Rankings &
margin of victory


16 January:
Power Rankings &
the 20-goal game


 

 
 

News Update 31 January 2001

Power Rankings and pursuit of milestones

Chad Gambone
Outsider's Guide


The National Lacrosse League Power Ranking formula is based completely on a mathematical formula that uses wins, loss, goals for and against, shots for and against, and how well the team has been playing lately. Any e-mail directed to me that is of the form "You obviously hate Team X, because..." or "You are so biased in favor of Team Y, since..." will be summarily ignored.

Teams have begun to separate into three distinct groups: playoff contenders, playoff hopefuls, and the Ottawa Rebel. The first-place Bandits and fifth-place Knighthawks are separated by a half-game in the standings, and by less than two-and-a-half goals in the Power Rankings. The Attack, Saints, and Landsharks are the teams that need to shake off tough starts to make any sort of run. The Rebel need to decide on what direction they plan to go in the 2002 NLL draft.

1. Buffalo Bandits       14.1441
2. Toronto Rock          13.0269
3. Washington Power      12.7436
4. Philadelphia Wings    12.4940
5. Rochester Knighthawks 11.7852
6. Albany Attack          8.5655
7. New York Saints        7.9539
8. Columbus Landsharks    6.3571
9. Ottawa Rebel           0.0000

The Power Rankings are normalized so that the last team has a ranking of 0.0000.

The Power Rankings can be interpreted as follows. If Albany is playing Philadelphia next week, the difference in the rankings is the estimated goal differential in the final score. There is also an adjustment added to the home team, which is currently 1.4800 goals. Thus if the Attack are at the Wings, and the Attack have a rating of 7.4800, and the Wings have a rating of 8.0000, the Wings are expected to win by two goals.


Milestone wins & losses

With one more victory, the Philadelphia Wings will be the first Eagle/MILL/NLL franchise to win one hundred games (regular season and postseason combined.) The Wings' record currently stands at 99-55, an impressive .643 winning percentage. The next team to reach the milestone will likely be the Buffalo Bandits (66-40) or the Washington Power (63-81). The Bandits will need to significantly pick up the pace, however, if they plan to win one hundred in less games than the Wings. The Toronto Rock is currently the only franchise with a better winning percentage (32-14, .696) than Philadelphia, but needs to sustain that pace for far longer than its current two-year run.

Which team will be the first to put triple digits on the wrong side of the ledger? The current odds-on favorite is the New York Saints, who, at 66-78, have three fewer losses than the Washington Power, but the Saints seem to be headed for another sub-par season. Unless the Rebel reverses its losing ways, however, neither the Power nor Saints will have to worry about holding the record for very long. Ottawa is on a pace to lose a hundred games in only 116 outings.


Notes on Week Seven's games
Lines are for entertainment purposes only, and are based solely on the Power Rankings above.

Toronto Rock (-3.5) at New York Saints, Saturday, 7:30 PM
This is the Rock's first visit to Long Island since a 10-9 victory on 9 April 1999... The Saints' only victory against the Rock (1-4) came in the Ontario Raiders era, an 11-10 Saints win in 1998 at Nassau Coliseum.

Rochester Knighthawks (+2) at Philadelphia Wings, Saturday, 7:30 PM
Rochester has won three times in Philadelphia, second only to Buffalo (4-5), NY (4-13), and Washington (4-12)... Philadelphia is looking to complete their second season sweep of the Knighthawks in four years. The previous two-game sweep was in 1998.

Ottawa Rebel (NL) @ Buffalo Bandits, Saturday, 8:00 PM
The Ottawa Rebel are averaging only 8.71 goals per game this season. The record for the lowest per-game average is held by the 1996 Charlotte Cobras, at 8.5... The Bandits, on the other hand, are averaging 20.50 goals per game. The record for most goals per game is held by the 1992 Bandits, at 20.13.

-30-