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2 January:
Who will score the
15,000th goal?


 

 
 

News Update 2 January 2002

Power Rankings and a milestone goal

Rock holds initial top spot, defending champs open in 10th

Chad Gambone
Outsider's Guide


The National Lacrosse League Power Ranking formula is based completely on a mathematical formula that uses wins, loss, goals for and against, shots for and against, and how well the team has been playing lately. Any e-mail directed to me that is of the form "You obviously hate Team X, because..." or "You are so biased in favor of Team Y, since..." will be summarily ignored. So, without further ado, here are the Power Rankings for Week Five:

1.  Toronto Rock             8.4964 ( 9)
2.  Rochester Knighthawks    8.4099 ( 6)
3.  Washington Power         7.7647 ( 8)
4.  Montreal Express         7.7139 ( 5)
5.  Albany Attack            7.5662 (12)
6.  Buffalo Bandits          6.9303 ( 3)
7.  Vancouver Ravens         6.1742 ( 7)
8.  New York Saints          5.8737 (10)
9.  Calgary Roughnecks       5.4990 (11)
10. Philadelphia Wings       5.3772 ( 1)
11. Columbus Landsharks      3.7311 (13)
12. Ottawa Rebel             2.3973 ( 2)
13. New Jersey Storm         0.0000 ( 4)

The Power Rankings are normalized so the last team has a ranking of 0.0000.

The Power Rankings can be interpreted as follows. If Albany is playing Philadelphia next week, the difference in the rankings is the estimated goal differential in the final score. Also, there is an adjustment added to the home team, which is currently 1.3149 goals. Thus if the Attack are at the Wings, and the Attack have a rating of 7.3149, and the Wings have a rating of 8.0000, the Wings should be expected to win by two goals.

The number in parentheses after the ranking represent schedule strength. A ranking of 1 represents the toughest schedule so far; a ranking of 13 represents the the easiest schedule.


League Approaches a Major Milestone

As we pass into 2002, the league's sixteenth calendar year of existence, the National Lacrosse League is rapidly approaching the 15,000th goal in league history scored. Through the games of 29 December 2001, 14,739 goals have been scored in regular season or postseason games. At the current pace of 29.67 goals per game in 2001-2002, the 15,000th goal likely will be scored on 18 January, in either the New York at Philadelphia game or Buffalo at Calgary match.

Note: There is some dispute over the final score of the 1990 MILL Championship game. All offical league records show a score of Philadelphia 17, New England 7. It is this score that is used to calculate the 14,739 quoted above. However, several people actually at the game report the final score was 17-9 Wings. The league has never changed the offical score.


Notes on Week Eight's games
Lines are for entertainment purposes only, and are based solely on the Power Rankings above.

Columbus Landsharks @ Ottawa Rebel (pick), Friday, 7:30 PM
The cellar dwellars of the Northern and Central divisions meet in this doubly national telecast (CNN/SI in the United States, and The Score in Canada). Last year, Columbus traveled to Ottawa and picked up a 11-8 victory. That win, though, is the only victory for the Landsharks in their past twelve games. Ottawa is looking to get back on track and end their current three-game losing streak.

Rochester Knighthawks @ Buffalo Bandits (pick), Saturday, 7:30 PM
Rochester is the only team in the NLL that has had success in the city of snow. The Knighthawks have won seven of the ten matchups in Buffalo, and 12 of the 17 matchups in total. Rochester had better be on its guard, however, because the last time the Bandits had a game postponed, they came out and beat Detroit the following week, 20-14.

Toronto Rock @ Washington Power (-0.5), Saturday, 8:00 PM
Two of the top three teams in the Power Rankings meet in this matchup. Washington plays its third consecutive home game, amid rumors the team is about to be sold and moved at year's end. This is a series that has been dominated by the home team. Toronto has one only once in four tries in the States, while the Power has lost four of five north of the border.

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