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13 March:
Power Rankings &
Stretch Drive


6 March:
Power Rankings &
Shakespeare


 

 
 

News Update 21 March 2002

Power Rankings and the Playoffs

Attack poised to claim Power Ranking title from 2001 winner Rock

Chad Gambone
Outsider's Guide


The National Lacrosse League Power Ranking formula is based completely on a mathematical formula that uses wins, loss, goals for and against, shots for and against, and how well the team has been playing lately. Any e-mail directed to me that is of the form "You obviously hate Team X, because..." or "You are so biased in favor of Team Y, since..." will be summarily ignored. So, without further ado, here are the Power Rankings for Week Five:

1.  Albany Attack           13.0555 (12)
2.  Rochester Knighthawks   12.5543 ( 4)
3.  Toronto Rock	    10.8783 ( 9)
4.  Vancouver Ravens         8.5404 (13)
5.  Washington Power         7.6980 (11)
6.  Montreal Express         6.6324 ( 5)
7.  Philadelphia Wings       5.5929 ( 8)
8.  Buffalo Bandits          5.4157 ( 1)
9 . Columbus Landsharks      3.2596 ( 6)
10. New York Saints          2.1551 ( 2)
11. Calgary Roughnecks       0.5507 ( 7)
12. New Jersey Storm         0.5209 (10)
13. Ottawa Rebel             0.0000 ( 3)

The Power Rankings are normalized so the last team has a ranking of 0.0000.

The Power Rankings can be interpreted as follows. If Albany is playing Philadelphia next week, the difference in the rankings is the estimated goal differential in the final score. Also, there is an adjustment added to the home team, which is currently 1.2307 goals. Thus if the Attack are at the Wings, and the Attack have a rating of 7.2307, and the Wings have a rating of 8.0000, the Wings should be expected to win by two goals.

The number in parentheses after the ranking represent schedule strength. A ranking of 1 represents the toughest schedule so far; a ranking of 13 represents the easiest schedule.


The Contenders at a Glance

Albany Attack
Season Record: 13-2, currently 1st overall
Record against other playoff teams: 3-2

 MTL 1-0

PHI 1-0
ROC 0-2
TOR 0-0
VAN 0-0
WSH 1-0
All time playoff record: 0-0, no appearances
Goals For: 236
Goals Against: 188
Shots For: 829
Shots Against: 793
Power Play: 51 for 104, 49.0% (11th)
Penalty Killing: 66 for 115, 57.4% (1st)

Montreal Express
Season Record: 8-7, currently 6th overall
Record against other playoff teams:  1-6

 ALB 0-1

PHI 0-0
ROC 0-2
TOR 1-1
VAN 0-2
WSH 0-0
All time playoff record: 0-0, first season
Goals For: 230
Goals Against: 211
Shots For: 819
Shots Against: 830
Power Play: 53 for 89, 59.6% (2nd)
Penalty Killing: 38 for 92, 41.3% (10th)

Philadelphia Wings
Season Record: 7-7. currently 7th overall
Record against other playoff teams: 3-3

 ALB 0-1

MTL 0-0
ROC 1-1
TOR 0-0
VAN 1-0
WSH 1-1
All time playoff record: 16-8, 6 titles, 9 championship appearances, 14 playoff appearances
Goals For: 201
Goals Against: 209
Shots For: 629
Shots Against: 650
Power Play: 55 for 100, 55.0% (6th)
Penalty Killing: 40 for 78, 51.3% (4th)

Rochester Knighthawks
Season Record: 12-3, currently 2nd overall (4th seed)
Record against other playoff teams: 6-3

 ALB 2-0

MTL 2-0
PHI 1-1
TOR 1-1
VAN 0-0
WSH 0-1
All time playoff record: 5-6, 1 title, 4 championship appearances, 7 playoff appearances
Goals For: 244
Goals Against: 187
Shots For: 795
Shots Against: 656
Power Play: 53 for 105, 50.5% (10th)
Penalty Killing: 52 for 106, 49.1% (7th) 

Toronto Rock
Season Record: 10-4, currently 3rd overall (2nd seed)
Record against other playoff teams: 4-4

 ALB 0-0

MTL 1-1
PHI 0-0
ROC 1-1
VAN 1-1
WSH 1-1
All time playoff record: 5-1, 2 titles, 3 championship appearances, 3 playoff appearances
Goals For: 195
Goals Against: 155
Shots For: 851
Shots Against: 669
Power Play: 35 for 65, 53.8% (8th)
Penalty Killing: 46 for 82, 56.1% (2nd)

Vancouver Ravens
Season Record: 9-6, currently 5th overall
Record against other playoff teams: 3-3

 ALB 0-0

MTL 2-0
PHI 0-1
ROC 0-0
TOR 1-1
WSH 0-1
All time playoff record: 0-0, first season
Goals For: 219
Goals Against: 182
Shots For: 835
Shots Against: 766
Power Play: 61 for 107, 57.0% (3rd)
Penalty Killing: 45 for 104, 43.3% (9th)

Washington Power
Season Record: 9-6, currently 4th overall (3rd seed)
Record against other playoff teams: 4-3

 ALB 0-1

MTL 0-0
PHI 1-1
ROC 1-0
TOR 1-1
VAN 1-0
All time playoff record: 3-7, 1 title, 3 championship appearances, 7 postseason appearances
Goals For: 231
Goals Against: 210
Shots For: 855
Shots Against: 832
Power Play: 57 for 81, 70.4% (1st)
Penalty Killing: 39 for 96, 40.6% (11th)


Playoff Status

Albany will host at least one playoff game. The Attack clinch the top playoff seed and Central Division title with a win or a Rochester loss.
Montreal qualifies for the postseason with two Philadelphia losses OR a win plus one Philadelphia loss OR a loss, one Philadelphia loss, and a Buffalo loss.
Philadelphia qualifies for the postseason with two wins OR one win plus Montreal and Washington losses.
Rochester will host at least one playoff game. The Knighthawks clinch the number one seed and Central Division title with a win AND an Attack loss.
Toronto has won the Northern Division, and clinches the second seed and a first-round bye with one win OR a Washington loss.
Vancouver has wrapped up a playoff berth. They clinch the number five seed with a win OR a Philadelphia loss.
Washington has won the Eastern Division, and clinches the second seed and a bye with a win plus two Toronto losses.
Buffalo, Calgary, Columbus, New Jersey, New York, and Ottawa are eliminated from postseason play.

Notes on Week Nineteen's games
Lines are for entertainment purposes only, and are based solely on the Power Rankings above.

Rochester Knighthawks (-8.0) @ Columbus Landsharks, Friday 7:30 PM

Rochester uses this final game to tune up for their annual postseason run, making the playoffs for a eighth consecutive time. They need the win as well, in order to put pressure on Albany for the division crown. Columbus ends their second home season with this game, with had to be a disappointing season. Attendance dropped off significantly from year one, and a promising season has collapsed to a 5-9 record.

Philadelphia Wings @ Toronto Rock (-6.5), Friday 7:30 PM
Toronto Rock (-4.0) @ Philadelphia Wings, Saturday 8:00 PM

After eighteen weeks of waiting, the league finally gets to see the rematch of last year's thrilling final, and not just once, but twice, in a matter of twenty four hours. It's Toronto's first shot at revenge for the Wings 9-8 victory, however, the Wings are desperate for victories just to get into the postseason dance in 2002. Two Wings wins will assure the defending champs of their eleventh straight berth and fifteenth in sixteen seasons, but a split requires some help.

Vancouver Ravens (-7.0) @ Calgary Roughnecks, Saturday 2:30 PM

With the victory in Vancouver over the Roughnecks last weekend, the Ravens became the fourth expansion team to clinch a berth in their opening season, joining Detroit, Buffalo, and Rochester. A win in this game would assure them of a trip to either Rochester or Albany next weekend for a quarterfinal match up. For the other western team, the season has not been as successful, but the future is bright for a team that has the fans interest and has recovered well from a pair of season-opening routs by Montreal.

Buffalo Bandits @ Washington Power (-3.5), Saturday 7:00 PM

The once-proud Bandit franchise will miss the playoffs for the third time in four years in 2002, but they can still cause some havoc. A win can cost Montreal a playoff berth, or cost the Power a bye. They can also finish the season at .500, a somewhat appropriate result for a team that alternated wins and losses in its first eleven outings of the year.  Washington needs help from divisional rival Philadelphia to earn a week off, but even if the Power can't catch the Rock, they'll want to close out the Capital Centre in style.

Montreal Express @ Albany Attack (-7.5), Sunday 7:00 PM

If the Wings split and the the Bandit win, the Montreal Express will be playing for their playoff lives in this game. Even if the Express has wrapped up the berth, they'll want to play well to improve on their 1-6 record against postseason teams. For Albany, the game could mean the difference of having a week off and then hosting Rochester, or hosting a quarterfinal game and travelling to Rochester for a possible semifinal.

Columbus Landsharks (-1.5) @ New Jersey Storm, Saturday 7:30 PM
Ottawa Rebel @ New York Saints (-3.5), Saturday 7:30 PM
New Jersey Storm @ Ottawa Rebel (-0.5), Sunday 7:00 PM

The Sharks, Saints, Storm, and Rebel all end postseason-less campaigns with this trio of games. New York and Ottawa each have missed five consecutive playoffs, a league record. For New Jersey, wins over Washington and Philadelphia may have salvaged a complete disaster of a season, while in Ohio, the youngest team in the league will be hoping to mature into a contender soon.

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