The National Lacrosse League Power Ranking formula is based completely on a mathematical formula that uses wins, loss, goals for and against, shots for and against, and how well the team has been playing lately. Any e-mail directed to me that is of the form "You obviously hate Team X, because..." or "You are so biased in favor of Team Y, since..." will be summarily ignored. So, without further ado, here are the Power Rankings for Week Five:

1.  Albany Attack           13.6795 (12)
2.  Rochester Knighthawks   12.8849 ( 8)
3.  Toronto Rock	    10.8067 ( 9)
4.  Vancouver Ravens         9.1701 (13)
5.  Washington Power         7.2034 (10)
6.  Montreal Express         6.0165 ( 2)
7.  Buffalo Bandits          5.9817 ( 1)
8.  Philadelphia Wings       5.8717 ( 4)
9 . Columbus Landsharks      2.2133 ( 5)
10. New Jersey Storm         1.8183 (11)
11. New York Saints          1.6122 ( 3)
12. Ottawa Rebel             0.2669 ( 7)
13. Calgary Roughnecks       0.0000 ( 6)

Power Ranking Year in Review

The rankings have looked pretty similar for the past few weeks. It's been quite a while since the league seemed to have split into four packs. The top three are clearly Albany, Rochester, and Toronto. Rochester has the unfortunate luck of being in the same division as the league-leading Attack, so they are playing this weekend. Vancouver and Washington have been locked into fourth and fifth for a couple of weeks.  Sixth through eighth are separated by just more than one-tenth of a goal, and that's how the playoff race was too, right down to the wire. The "playoff pretenders" finish out the league, with the Storm edging out their rival Saints for the last spot in the top ten, and Ottawa digging their way out of the cellar.  The nine game losing streak to end the season is the difference that puts the Roughnecks in last for their initial season.

The Power Rankings are normalized so the last team has a ranking of 0.0000.

The Power Rankings can be interpreted as follows. If Albany is playing Philadelphia next week, the difference in the rankings is the estimated goal differential in the final score. Also, there is an adjustment added to the home team, which is currently 1.1923 goals. Thus if the Attack are at the Wings, and the Attack have a rating of 7.1923, and the Wings have a rating of 8.0000, the Wings should be expected to win by two goals.

The number in parentheses after the ranking represent schedule strength. A ranking of 1 represents the toughest schedule so far; a ranking of 13 represents the easiest schedule.

The Quarterfinals - Statistically speaking

(5) Vancouver Ravens (10-6, 4-4 road)
    at (4) Rochester Knighthawks (13-3, 8-0 home)

Line: Knighthawks by 5.

                                      Vancouver   Rochester
Goals Scored                            236         258
Goals Allowed                           191         200
Shots Taken                             888         913
Shots Allowed                           816         835
Penalty Minutes                         327         352
Loose Balls                           1,042       1,432

Power Play Goals                         63          58
Power Play Chances                      110         113
Power Play %                           57.3%       51.3%
Shorthanded Goals All.                    7          15 
Penalty Kills                            48          54
Penalty Kill Chances                    108         107
Penalty Kill %                         44.4%       50.5%
Shorthanded Goals Scored                 14          10

Best Offensive Quarter                  3rd         4th
Worst Offensive Quarter                 1st         2nd
Best Defensive Quarter                  3rd         2nd
Worst Defensive Quarter                 4th         1st

Overtime Record, this season            0-1         1-1
Overtime Record, playoffs               0-0         0-1

Playoff Record, all time                0-0         5-6
Playoff Record, home/road               0-0         1-0
Playoff Record, vs opponent             0-0         0-0
All time Record, vs opponent            0-0         0-0
All time Rec., vs opp home/away         0-0         0-0

My take: Rochester has had a strong push going into the locker room and at the end of the game this season, so Vancouver will need to control the ball for the last five minutes of each half to avoid letting the game slip away. The Knighthawks power play has been lazy on defense several times this year, including allowing two three-on-five shorthanded goals. Scoring a couple of shorthanded goals may be the way the Ravens can stop Hawk runs early and stay in this game.

Prediction: Pat O'Toole has never been a big-game goaltender, but the Ravens will be hard pressed to keep this one close enough to put O'Toole in a pressure situation late. Rochester 16 - Vancouver 12.

(3) Washington Power (9-7, 3-5 road)
    at (6) Philadelphia Wings (8-8, 6-2 home)

Line: Even.

                                    Washington  Philadelphia
Goals Scored                            253         222
Goals Allowed                           233         237
Shots Taken                             923         862
Shots Allowed                           898         863
Penalty Minutes                         411         329
Loose Balls                           1,470       1,230

Power Play Goals                         63          57
Power Play Chances                       89         111
Power Play %                           70.8%       51.3%
Shorthanded Goals All.                   10           9
Penalty Kills                            40          41
Penalty Kill Chances                    101          80
Penalty Kill %                         39.6%       51.2%
Shorthanded Goals Scored                 14           9

Best Offensive Quarter                  2nd         2nd
Worst Offensive Quarter                 1st         1st
Best Defensive Quarter                  1st         3rd
Worst Defensive Quarter                 3rd         2nd

Overtime Record, this season            1-0         1-1
Overtime Record, playoffs               0-0         1-1

Playoff Record, all time                3-7        16-8
Playoff Record, home/road               2-4        10-3
Playoff Record, vs opponent             0-3         3-0
All time Record, vs opponent           10-25       25-10
All time Rec., vs opp home/away         4-14       14-4

My take: This game is a battle between two disappointing Eastern divisional teams, who combined for only a 17-15 regular season record. Both these teams are capable of playing much better than their records indicate. The Power will look to repeat what they did in the game this year in Washington, crushing the Wings in the second quarter and putting the game out of reach. If the game is close at the half, the Wings are the superior second half team, and should come out on top.

Prediction: The Wings have been tough at home this season, at least against the high-caliber opponents. If this game was in Washington, it would be a different story, but I'll say the Wings win a close battle where the lead never is bigger than three for either side. Philadelphia 12 - Washington 11 (ot).